Columns.
How to read our numbers, why we commit before kick-off, and how we answer the arguments in the stands with data.
- Reading the numbers
What a 41% chance of winning actually means
A worked example of three possible results, rounding and the difference between the likeliest outcome and a likely win.
- From the stands
Turning a terrace argument into a question we can check
Five familiar criticisms, five separate questions. Define the action, comparison and time period before attaching a verdict to a player.
- Behind the scenes
Why a prediction needs a record from before kick-off
What a pre-match lock proves, what a post-match check measures, and why learning from a new match must leave the old record intact.